The Lucas Critique and Rational Expectations
루카스 비판과 합리적 기대가설
A foundational macroeconomic critique stating that it is naive to predict the effects of an economic policy purely on historical data, because rational actors optimize behavior in response to policy changes.
| Field | Economics |
|---|---|
| Level of analysis | Macro · Structures & Institutions |
| Paradigm | Rational Choice |
| Key figures | 👤 Robert Lucas Jr. (로버트 루카스) |
| Year | 1976 |
Key Claims
Robert Lucas demonstrated that traditional macroeconomic policy simulations are inherently flawed. Because forward-looking economic agents rationally alter their expectations and decision rules when policy regimes change, econometric parameters based on past regimes break down.
Further Reading
- Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19–46.
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